Every half-decade or so, Justin Bieber sloughs off the callused skin of the pop superstar he became at age 15 to reveal the tender and quirky R&B singer he’s always been at heart. He did it in 2013 with his album “Journals,” then in 2020 with “Changes.”

Those estimates would yield a respectable debut, particularly given that Swag ’s week one numbers likely won’t include any physical sales. Justice, Bieber’s next-most-recent album, debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard chart back in 2021 with 154,000 equivalent units, including 30,000 physical sales.