U.S. interest rates look too high, relative to inflation. A compelling argument can be made that U.S. interest rates are higher than they “should” be relative to inflation. The implication of ...

That average rate is a "reasonable" guess, given current policy, he said. Currently, there's a 10% baseline tariff on most U.S. trading partners, and a higher rate on China of at least 30%.

The Berenberg economics team led by Holger Schmieding produced this striking chart, showing how interest-rate expectations are heading in the opposite direction of inflation expectations.